
Brock Lesnar is, as of right now, the most dominant heavyweight in the Ultimate Fighting Championship. The combination of size, speed and athleticism is a rarity the likes of which are not seen much at all in professional sports.
With the announcement of Lesnar’s return to the Octagon from a long battle with diverticulitis, the question is brought up about who the heavyweight champion will defend his title against come summer.
Four fighters currently sit atop the rankings and a legitimate argument can be made for each as to why they should be the next in line to take on the former WWE Superstar. Frank Mir, Shane Carwin, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Cain Velasquez all stand as candidates to run for heavyweight gold.
Fans have varying opinions when it comes to who they feel should have the number one contender spot for the title, but things will be hashed out within the organization in the coming months.
With Nogueira and Velasquez set to tangle at UFC 110 on February 20th and Mir and Carwin scheduled to fight on March 27th, the list will shrink to two and the contender will be decided by Dana White and company at that point.
Given the four potential matchups for Lesnar, there are a number of ways each fight can end. Each contender has his own special set of skills and they will need to utilize them if they are to have any shot of defeating Lesnar.
Lesnar vs. Carwin:
Leading up to their scheduled, then canceled, fight at UFC 106, Shane Carwin was being hailed as the fighter people had deemed the “Lesnar Killer.”
Many had hoped that Carwin would be the one to end what many thought as Lesnar’s tyrannous reign as champion. At 6-foot-3 and 265-pounds, Carwin has a similar stature to Lesnar which makes for an interesting matchup, dynamically.
Never having faced an opponent with the same frame as his, Lesnar would find trouble attempting to physically dominate Carwin as he has done with other opponents.
If Carwin is to beat Lesnar, it would not be through his background in wrestling as they would negate each other. The two heavyweights are so close in stature and technique that a victory for Carwin would have to come through the heavy right hand he introduced to Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 96.
Let’s not take anything away from Lesnar’s power, though. The champion’s right hand is just as big and dangerous, so with the right timing and velocity, Lesnar could be the first to scratch in Carwin’s loss column.
So, with both hands being as strong as they are, who’s lands first? The answer could be debated to no end but in all honesty, it’s difficult to gauge which of the two would find their opponent’s chin quicker. Given Brock’s ungodly speed, it might be safe to say he would end up hitting first, however Lesnar’s chin is yet to be tested and if Carwin’s punch lands it could put the champion down in an unfamiliar position … sleeping in the Octagon.
Lesnar vs. Velasquez:
Probably the longest shot of the group, Cain Velasquez stands as the ugly duckling of contenders vying for the title.
Regardless of being a long shot, Velasquez is undefeated in the UFC (5-0), with all but one of his wins coming by some form of KO. He, like Carwin, has heavy hands that are capable of putting some of the biggest fighters down and out. The problem that the 245-pound Velasquez faces is being severely undersized compared to the champion.
Giving up 20 pounds of weight is never good going into a fight, especially if that fight is with a man whose physical specimen rivals that of a small rhinoceros. Just ask Randy Couture.
Of course, having a size disadvantage gives a fighter other attributes that could help him in the long run.
Being smaller than Lesnar opens up the opportunity for Velasquez to stick and move against his opponent. His boxing will have to be his most precious asset if Velasquez is to have any chance of winning the title.
More than just punching, the fluid motion of a boxer will prevent Lesnar from landing any haymakers. If Velasquez can keep the fight standing long enough, Lesnar may punch himself out, opening up a shot for Velasquez to KO the champ.
This is all assuming Lesnar is unable to take Velasquez to the mat.
If Velasquez is put on his back with the massive champion on top of him, the fight is likely to end quickly with Lesnar stifling Velasquez using a brutal ground and pound assault. If this happens, Velasquez’s face might look a lot like Frank Mir’s did after UFC 100.
Lesnar vs. Nogueira:
Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira is used to being the underdog.
Fighting Lesnar is, believe it or not, a favorable matchup for Nogueira.
The most useful part of Nogueira’s repertoire is his undeniable ability to catch fighters slipping and capitalizing on those mistakes. Lesnar’s relative inexperience would be his achilles heel in this potential bout and Nogueira would be looking for every opportunity to take advantage of it.
Take Tim Sylvia for example, once the top heavyweight in the organization. He out-pointed Nogueira for almost three rounds before being swept into guard, leaving his massive neck out to dry which led to the guillotine choke that ended the fight.
Much like Velasquez, Nogueira is undersized against the champion, but if put onto his back it will serve him much better because it is where he is more comfortable. As much as Lesnar would look to pound the Brazilian on the ground, any floating limb would be a feast for Nogueira to attack for the submission win.
Nogueira does not have to physically dominate a fight in order to win it. As a matter of fact, it’s his opponents that look to overwhelm, only to get caught in a compromising position.
If Nogueira is over his staph infection and his senses are up to par again, the Brazilian could keep his composure in a Lesnar ground and pound and pull off the submission upset. If he is unable to find a limb to grab for the submission, his gamble of fighting from his back would lead to him losing the fight by decision.
Lesnar vs. Mir:
Can we say rubber match?
A third fight with Mir is arguably the most popular of the potential title fights for Lesnar. The heated rivalry has brewed ever since the champion’s UFC debut back at UFC 81 and was renewed during a teleconference when Lesnar made it clear he would love another shot at “The Stalker.”
As much as Lesnar wants Mir, the feeling is likely the same on the other side of the spectrum.
In his last fight with Chieck Kongo at UFC 107, Mir made a giant statement when he threw an over-hand right that put Kongo on the canvas. The right hand came behind 10-15 pounds of added muscle, increasing Mir’s overall mass to 264 pounds.
The speculation is that Mir took on the extra weight to contend with his nemesis, Lesnar, and level the playing field.
Mir has a distinct advantage over all the contenders because his stand up is much better than the other three potential challengers. In his two previous fights with Lesnar, Mir was taken to the ground at will by the champion. The added size might prevent Lesnar from taking Mir down so easily and force the former WWE superstar to prove he can trade shots with his opponent.
A stand up feud is probably in Mir’s better interests since he lost decisively the last time the bout hit the mat at UFC 100.
Look for Mir to attempt to find control on the feet and out-strike Lesnar. If the fight goes to the ground, Mir will look to put Lesnar on his back, where wrestlers are uncomfortable, and potentially pull off a submission.
With all the potential matchups for Lesnar, each of them have their own unique ways of ending. MMA fans are looking forward to knowing who the champion faces after UFC 110 and UFC 111 are in the books.
For now, the soap opera that is the UFC heavyweight division continues to become a more tangled web, while a polarizing figure sits atop leading the way to mainstream exposure for the sport.
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